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Lebanese citizens start and end their days with questions of what the future will bring amid political paralysis and economic hardship … and with justified anxiety about the future.
Meanwhile, Washington piles on the pressure to push through the Lebanese part of its regional effort, which naturally aligns with Israel’s goals.
Despite the many Lebanese names among the American diplomats in the Middle East, there is no doubt that their loyalty to Washington and its interests comes first.
Nevertheless, the Lebanese inside Lebanon continue to fantasize about the prominent role their expatriate kin could play in the hallways of American politics. This unattainable dream is shared by many expatriates as well; during President Donald Trump’s election campaign for a second term, they bet that family ties and business deals would allow them to have a positive influence on him.
As usual, they (or let’s say many of them) have evidently lost their bet. Their aspirations were unfounded because of the hard realities they refuse to acknowledge.
To begin with, there are two problems standing in the way. The first is a fundamentally Lebanese problem and the second is an Arab-Islamic problem.
With respect to the first problem, while so-called Judeo-Christian values are a pillar of the American right’s politics, the political loyalties and geopolitical views of the “old” Lebanese immigrants (the majority of whom are Christian) are very different to those of the new Lebanese Americans. The new Lebanese Americans are those who have left for the US since the Second World War, mostly during the Lebanese Civil War, and most of them are Muslims.
It should be noted that the old immigrants, along with their children and grandchildren, see Lebanon (its political, national and religious identity) differently from those who arrived later, particularly after the civil war.
Another important point is that the old immigrants have, by and large (especially the Christians), become “Americanized.” They have assimilated into the white Christian political culture of the US, particularly through the Republican Party. They are part of the business class. By contrast, a large portion of the new Lebanese Americans continue to identify with their origins — an attachment that grows in parallel with regional influences (Israeli, Iranian and, more recently, Turkish).
The Lebanese inside Lebanon continue to fantasize about the prominent role their expatriate kin could play in US politics
Eyad Abu Shakra
This split seems to be reflected in the tensions between the proposals of intermediaries and American diplomats (including active Jewish figures like Jared Kushner and Morgan Ortagus) and Lebanese Christian diplomats and advisers such as Tom Barrack, Massad Boulos and the new American ambassador in Beirut, Michel Issa, on the one hand and, on the other, local Lebanese forces that have political and military weight, as well as regional ties.
In truth, Washington and Tel Aviv are well aware of Lebanon’s fragility. They understand the intricate local political calculus in this country of 18 sects, but this has not stopped them from behaving with willful ignorance.
For example, Washington and Tel Aviv fully understand that Iran has a strong influence on all the Shiite communities in the Middle East. Nevertheless, they are pushing the Lebanese government to take steps that do not account for the delicacy of the country’s power-sharing system.
Moreover, this heavy-handed approach is being taken as Iraq is about to hold critical elections that will test Tehran’s influence, which it attained in 2003 because of the US and Israel’s policies. They are the first Iraqi elections to be held since the Iranian regime was defanged in Syria and while the latter country’s new political identity has yet to take shape amid a Turkish-Israeli tug of war over its territory.
That brings us to the second problem: the Arab-Islamic dimension of the Lebanese question.
It is evident, unfortunately, that the US and Israeli pressure on Lebanon fails to account for what has happened in Gaza since Oct. 7, 2023. They have ignored the threats faced by West Bank residents and others due to the promises of a “Greater Israel” by Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, as well as extremist settler activists like Daniella Weiss.
In my view, the first question is whether Trump can persuade the Israeli right to commit to his project as the latter presents plans for displacement and settlement expansion.
Indeed, it will be difficult to imagine the regional repercussions (within but also beyond Lebanon) of the White House failing to stand in the way of these plans, which a growing number of sensible Jews around the world now recognize as a heavy burden and a dangerous threat for Jewish communities globally.
Before threatening the fragile Lebanese government, Washington must make the next move. It must show a serious commitment to ensuring comprehensive peace in the region. As for wasting time with minor battles meant to divert attention away from the key issue, this will only aggravate and complicate matters.
• Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. X: @eyad1949